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林保华:十九届四中全会习近平面对压力

October 17, 2019

“逢九必乱”是习近平的梦魇。今年对习近平的最大威胁来自四个方面:美中贸易战、香港反送中、经济下行、党内政变。虽然今年已过了四分之三,中国建国七十周年的大庆也已平安度过,但是“必乱”的魔咒并未过去。十九届四中全会习近平将面对这些压力。

美中贸易战达成初步协议,然而双方最关心的改革中国经济发展模式及解除对中国关键企业的制裁均未触及,因此后面还有大风大浪,习近平急于妥协先应付四中全会再说。NBA风波中国前倨后恭也顾不得纸老虎本质现形,何来复兴?

香港反送中还没有妥协的迹象,随着警方使用真枪射人,并有涉嫌谋杀示威者多宗案件曝光,示威者也首次使用土制炸弹示警。香港问题牵涉政治、经济、外交层面,是习近平目前最大的不定时炸弹,威力大小取决于习近平的态度与能力。

经济也是习近平的死穴。除了中美贸易战的影响导致投资与外贸两大引擎衰退,“国进民退”也势必带来经济下行。总理李克强呼吁地方省份表达看法,显示他已经没有办法,要地方对习近平施压。然而习近平可能给地方自治权力吗?

上述三个问题不能解决,习近平就面临下台的压力,因为证明他的无能。大权集一身而无力解决,自然全由他负责。本来一年前召开的四中全会被习近平推迟一年,到现在定于十月而无具体日期,可见他的困境。因为这一年来问题不但没有解决,矛盾还继续加深,甚至爆发香港反送中。根据去年的经验,七个中央政治局常委加一个王岐山,只有栗战书支持习近平“定于一尊”。

镇压西藏叛乱六十周年过去了,五四一百周年过去了,六四屠城三十周年过去了,取缔法轮功二十周年过去了,建国七十周年也过去了,然而柏林围墙倒塌引发的“苏东波”三十周年还没有过去,自由世界与共产世界的对决还没有完全过去,目前正在激烈进行,质变也可能突如其来。

捷克首都布拉格市长贺吉普,因为反对打压台湾的“一中”政策,而与北京解除姊妹市关系,被中国施以断绝来往与经济压力,但是他没有屈服,反而中国驻捷克大使张建敏赶紧表示,双方友好合作始终是主旋律。北京不会忘记“布拉格之春”及“天鹅绒革命”对苏东波的深刻影响;而德国是否承认台湾在民间的呼声也日益上升。星星之火,会不会因为“台风”而燎原?

今年还是猪年,“逢九必乱”会不会变成“逢猪也乱”?不只是猪瘟对中国民生的影响,还有台湾在“猪尾”的大选可能扫到中国并影响全球政局。

(作者林保华为资深时事评论员,http://blog.pixnet.net/LingFengComment

(自由时报)

——转自痞客邦《林保华专栏(2019-10-16)

中国人权双周刊》第272期,2019年10月11日—2019年10月24日

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